Methodology
Crime data from Metro PD public statistics portal. Comparison periods: Jan 1-Mar 15 (pre) vs. Mar 17-19 (post). Short post-period limits conclusions. Data subject to reporting lag.
Reported Crime Comparison
| Category | Jan-Mar 15 (daily avg) | Mar 17-19 (daily avg) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Violent crime | 4.2 | 1.7 | -60% |
| Property crime | 12.8 | 6.3 | -51% |
| Drug offenses | 8.1 | 2.0 | -75% |
| Total reports | 28.4 | 12.3 | -57% |
Key Observations
Comparing 3-day post-period to 74-day pre-period average
Important Caveats
Short timeframe: Three days of data is insufficient to establish trends. Crime rates naturally fluctuate.
Reporting effects: Major events can affect reporting behavior. Residents may be more or less likely to report crimes during periods of uncertainty.
Causation vs. correlation: Multiple factors could explain changes, including increased police presence, media attention, or community behavior changes unrelated to any specific event.
Displacement: Crime may have moved to adjacent districts rather than decreased overall. City-wide data shows only -12% change in same period.
Historical Context
| Year | Eastern District Crime Rate (per 1000) |
|---|---|
| 2040 | 89.2 |
| 2041 | 94.7 |
| 2042 | 102.3 |
| 2043 | 108.9 |
| 2044 | 112.4 |
| 2045 (projected at pre-Mar 16 rate) | 118.6 |
The Eastern District has experienced consistently rising crime rates since 2040, which some analysts attributed to organized crime activity in the area.
Conclusion
Early data shows a significant drop in reported crime following March 16. However, the short timeframe and multiple confounding factors make it impossible to draw causal conclusions at this time.
This analysis will be updated as more data becomes available.
Source: Metro PD CompStat Public Portal, accessed March 19, 2045.